When assessing the resurgence of Russia in terms of the effect on US national security, one issue is definite – it is not a return of a bipolar order. Globalization and the shift toward multilateral cooperation in the international arena can be seen among the changes that make the strategy of the United States different from it was in the 1990s.
Additionally, it is unlikely that Russia will regain the same status the Soviet Union had during the Cold War, due to internal changes related to Russian changes in demographics, infrastructure, and others, and external changes, which can be seen through the emergence of new players, e.g. China. The aid provided to Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, although claimed to aim at supporting the conversion to a market economy and assisting in developing institutions that will make such conversion possible, was actually aimed toward denuclearization of the newly formed republics.
In other security aspects, the United States and NATO allies dismissed the interests of Russia, then represented through Russia’s president Boris Yeltsin. Without the materialization of A Russian-American strategic partnership, “NATO’s enlargement, American’s intervention in Bosnia and especially in Kosovo, and most of all, Russia’s sense of exclusion from European affairs”, might lead to Russia compensatively seeking to exercise influence in Europe and around the globe. Now, with Russia’s resurgent, it will try to pursue its interests and policies, regardless of whether they will be in conflict with US policies around the world. An example of pursuing such interests can be seen through the extension of Russia’s influence toward the former Soviet Republics, and now sovereign states, e.g. Georgia, Ukraine, Abkhazia, and others. It is unlikely that Russia will use weapons of massive destruction, due to physical and economic costs, but conflicts of strategic interest might nevertheless affect US national security agenda worldwide.
The options that the United States might pursue in terms of Russia’s resurgence can be seen through two distinct directions. The first one is “crushing” Russia, which implies a direct confrontation between the interest of the United States and its allies with the interests of the Russian Federation. The aspects on which the interests of the two countries might be different might include the relationships of Russia with its neighboring countries with each country protecting its interest, which include the military presence of each country. Accordingly, the confrontation might be concerned with the definition of partners and allies. The second option, which is more likely, can be seen through working out a diplomatic way of meeting the needs and of the national security of each country.
The inclination toward such an option can be seen through the move of Russia toward democracy and the reduction of tensions between Russia and the United States. Such reduction can be seen through the shift from the unilateral approach that gained momentum during the Bush presidency to a multilateral approach in which many issues are common between the two countries.
The mutual concessions approach was proven as a beneficial tool in diplomatic relations, e.g. dealing with the North Korean nuclear programs, if not for the death of Kim Il-Sung. Those talks were resurrected when Russia also joined multilateral talks on North Korea in 2002 as well as the support to the suspension of Iran’s nuclear program. The emphasis on mutual interest can be seen through the National Security strategy outlined by Obama in May 2010, in which he focused on cooperation and the interest of a stable and multidimensional relationship with Russia. Thus, the resurgence of Russia will have an impact on US national security, for which the US will need to employ diplomacy and cooperation to pursue its security interests.